Dunn and Burchill: In the next few years…….Our view by 2025
Dunn and Burchill suggest that Automobile companies are no longer other car companies but Tesla (obvious), Google, Apple, Amazon ‘et al’ is…… There have always been the 3 constants …Death, Taxes, and CHANGE! The software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years. Uber is just a software tool, they don’t own any cars and are now the biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world although they don’t own any properties. Read on to see what the future holds
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected. Dunn and Burchill’s Legal team say that it is getting more difficult for new young lawyers to find and get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain. Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer four times more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.
Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars have appeared for the public. Around 2020 Dunn and Burchill expect that the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You won’t want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver’s license and will never own a car. It will change the cities because we will need 90-95% fewer cars for that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 miles (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 6 million miles (10 million km). That will save a million lives each year.
Dunn and Burchill offer the opinion that most car companies will probably become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels. Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla. Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear. Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood. Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020.
Energy: Dunn and Burchill thankfully foresee Cities that will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can’t last. Technology will take care of that strategy. With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We don’t have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Dunn and Burchill imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
Health: Dunn and Burchill expect that the Tricorder X price will be announced later this year. Some companies will build a medical device (called the “Tricorder” from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample, and you breathe into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years, everyone on this planet will have access to world-class medical analysis, nearly for free. Goodbye, medical establishment.
3D printing: Dunn and Burchill’s Research Department says that the price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. At the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes. Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large number of spare parts they used to have in the past. At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home. In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-story office building. By 2027 Dun and Burchill foresee that 10% of everything that’s being produced will be 3D printed.
Business Opportunities: Dunn and Burchill asks you to think of a niche you want to go into, and then ask yourself: “in the future, do you think we will have that?” and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn’t work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.
Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.
Agriculture: Dunn and Burchill expect to see a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields. Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now 30% of all agricultural surfaces are used for cows. Imagine if we don’t need that space anymore. Several startups will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as “alternative protein source” (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).
Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Dunn and Burchill note that just four years ago the life span was 79 years, now it’s 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036 there will be more than one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long time, probably way more than 100.
Education: The cheapest smartphones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smartphone. That means everyone has the same access to a world-class education. Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child needs to learn at school in First World countries. There have already been releases of software in Indonesia and soon there will be releases in Arabic, Swahili, and Chinese this summer. Dunn and Burchill see enormous potential if we give the English app for free so that children in Africa and everywhere else can become fluent in English and that could happen within half a year.
Please check our other blog: 3RD Quarter outlook 2018
Dunn and Burchill investment consultancy firm. We provide merger and acquisition advisory and strategic consulting services, and assist companies in obtaining financing through institutional placements of debt, mezzanine capital and equity.
Dunn and Burchill has expertise working in the financial services – banking and insurance – commercial and industrial, services, private equity, retail, technology, telecommunications and health care sectors
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